1997XF11 - No Cause For Panic

Many times in the last few decades, asteroids have passed close to the
Earth, some closer to the Earth than the Moon.

For the first time in human history, we have an unusually long advance
notice of such an encounter.

Current orbital calculations on the asteroid 1997XF11, discovered in
December of last year, indicate that it will pass close by the Earth
on October 26th of the year 2028, over 30 years from today.

The exact result of the calculations indicates that the asteroid would
pass by the Earth at a distance of 30,000 miles at its closest
approach, at 1:30 PM Eastern Standard Time. However, there is a range
of uncertainty concerning the approach of the asteroid; a point 30,000
miles from the Earth can be thought of as the center of a very large
circle, somewhere in which the asteroid's closest encounter with the
Earth will take place.

All that can be said with certainty is that the asteroid will approach
the Earth somewhat closer than the Moon.

The diameter of the Earth is about 8,000 miles.

The distance from the Earth to the Moon is about 240,000 miles.

This means that the possibility of a destructive encounter between
this asteroid and the Earth cannot be excluded at this time.

But the chance of such an encounter is less than 1%.

Due to the magnitude of the possible disaster involved, this is still
an extremely serious situation.

Because we have 30 years' advance notice, however, the launching of a
space probe to the asteroid in order to determine its orbit more
accurately than can be done by visual observations from the Earth, and
furthermore armed with a thermonuclear device to deflect the object's
orbit should that be found advisable, would constitute a _routine_
space mission, well within NASA's existing capabilities.

John Savard

Shush, little troll.

--
                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
     a a r d v a r k o @ g e o c i t i e s dot com   ._______.
                                __    __  o         \| Ant   |
       _. _..__|   _.._|  _    /  \/\/  \/           | KRUNCH|
      (_|(_||(_|\/(_|| |<(_)   \__/\/\__/\o          | .*@., |
    . . . . . . . . . . . . . . /\ . ./\ rdv  .@*.   |  \=/  |
  http://www.geocities.com/SiliconValley/Lab/2672/   '"""""""'
                      icq 8435513
                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

John Savard wrote in message <350...@news.prosurfr.com>...
>Many times in the last few decades, asteroids have passed close to the
>Earth, some closer to the Earth than the Moon.
>

jsa...@teneerf.edmonton.ab.ca (John Savard) wrote:

>Current orbital calculations on the asteroid 1997XF11, discovered in
>December of last year, indicate that it will pass close by the Earth
>on October 26th of the year 2028, over 30 years from today.

>The exact result of the calculations indicates that the asteroid would
>pass by the Earth at a distance of 30,000 miles at its closest
>approach, at 1:30 PM Eastern Standard Time.

JPL has announced this morning that using new data from prediscovery
observations, the distance of the asteroid's closest approach is now
most likely about 600,000 miles, eliminating the possibility of a
disaster.

John Savard